Lesson 17: Method or Market Approach
There are only two ways to invest in commodity futures or options
contracts. These two ways are the 'method' or the 'market' approach.
When a trader is unable to make a decision about entering a market,
it is often because he or she has not yet decided which investment
method to use.
In the 'market' approach, the trader selects a particular market and
decides to trade it. Often the trader will have blindfolds on with
respect to other markets. There are traders who like silver and
nothing else. Some investors prefer soybeans. I knew someone once who
would trade nothing but eggs, back in the days when the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange offered a futures contract in eggs. Traders that
trade a single market tend to believe that they have a 'feel' for
their market and they are comfortable trading it. Other markets may
even make them nervous.
Many futures and options traders use a 'method' approach. These
individuals use one of the many methods that are available for
trading futures and options contracts. One method might be to buy or
sell when a particular commitment of traders report comes out
indicating that the large traders have a substantial net long or
short position. Another method might be to use a moving average and
trade the moving average regardless of which market the moving
average signals occur in. Some traders follow volume and open
interest statistics and look for variations in patterns that indicate
good buying and selling opportunities. A 'method' trader is likely to
have a history of trading between five and twenty different markets.
A 'market' trader may have a history of trading just a single market,
certainly less than ten.
Which program is the best? This is my personal opinion and you can
judge it for that. Based on thirty-three years of futures and or
options trading, my opinion is that the 'method' trader has the
best opportunity for making significant profits from his or her
investments in futures and options contracts. The reason is
simple. A method trader is not confused with what is actually
happening at any given time in any given market.
Think of the young investors who started trading stocks for the first
time ten years ago and who then experienced several years of
financial success. Most were probably 'market' investors. They may
have picked a single corporation or perhaps less than a dozen
different corporations to invest their capital in. Let's assume that
investor A bought shares in corporation 101 and corporation 101
experienced a period of sustained growth from 1990 to 1999. Assume
that the price of the shares of corporation 101 went from $3 to $100
during those nine years. Investor A may have been falsely led to
conclude that the best method of investing in a stock is to buy on
every dip in price. This works great, when prices are going up.
But when prices are declining, it works the opposite of great.
Investor B decided in 1990 to become a 'method' investor. Assume
investor B bought corporation 101 stock but made purchases only when
a moving average showed a ten day line crossing a forty-five day
line. When corporation 101 reached the price of $100 a share and
started down, investor A, the 'market' investor, kept buying at $90 a
share and $80 a share and $70 a share and eventually at even $20 a
share. If prices ever advance to $70 again, investor A may get his
money back. But investor B, not being a market investor, did not buy
at $90 or $80 or $70 or $20. In fact, investor B sold all her stock
in corporation 101 at $90 and hasn't bought a share since. She
will buy corporation 101 again, however. Once the ten-day
moving average line crosses above the forty-five day moving average
line or whatever method of investment she may use to buy shares of
any corporation's stock.
The 'market' investor, A, has a paper loss now so large that it is
hard to imagine. Investor A has been trying not to think about it for
the past eight months. Our 'method' investor, however, has no paper
loss. The mistake "A" made was in believing that one could
go on forever buying the stock of corporation 101 and that such
purchases, regardless of at which levels they were made, would always
be bailed out when prices rose to new highs. Investor A bet the farm
on corporation 101 over and over and over again, much to investor A's
current dismay. The 'method' investor, however, understood that no
stock advances forever and that new highs in some stocks are often
not seen for months or years or even decades. Quite simply put, the
'method' investor was prepared for a bear market in shares of
corporation 101. The 'market' investor was not.
In futures and in options it is just the same. You can be a 'market'
investor or you can be a 'method' investor. My personal opinion
is that a trader will be more successful if the trader uses the
'method' approach than if the trader uses the 'market' approach.
If you trade nothing but sugar futures or options for the rest of
your life, what do you do if sugar prices trade in one-cent ranges
for two years? Or, if you are always long sugar what do you do when
prices decline? Or, if you have all your capital committed to sugar
and soybeans start making large advances week after week; are you
prepared to take advantage of the soybean move?
My advice to the futures and options trader is to become a
'method' investor. A 'method' investor can move from market
to market with ease. A 'method' investor will have the opportunity to
take advantage of price trends wherever they occur. A 'method'
investor can switch from sugar to silver at the first sign of a bull
market in one and a bear market in the other. Learn a good trading
method - whatever it may be - stick with it, transfer it with your
capital from market to market and you have a good chance of making
substantial profits by investing in futures and options contracts.
Horace Greeley said, "Go West young man, Go West". I say,
"Become a 'method' investor and increase your likelihood of
succeeding as a futures and options trader."
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